WN 2206 · PHX → MDW

took off 5:12 PM MT · expected to land 10:02 PM CT (scheduled 4:36 PM MT → 9:56 PM CT)

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

LIVE

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↓ MDW usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.06 in

MDW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2206 · PHX → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?