WN 2232 · LAS → SMF

took off 8:25 PM PT · expected to land 9:28 PM PT (scheduled 7:27 PM PT → 9:04 PM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

93% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

LIVE

On time or early
7%
15–30 min late
44%
30 min–1 hour late
49%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2232 · LAS → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?