Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2269
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 2269 · BNA → SAT
departs 1:55 PM CT · arrives 4:14 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
1pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 433 ft Visibility 4.66667 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.