Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2281
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 2281 · LAS → DEN
departs 1:21 PM PT · arrives 4:12 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 45%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±10 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.