WN 2368 · SMF → LAX

departs 2:26 PM PT · arrives 4:00 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from SMF are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2368 · SMF → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?