Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2385
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 2385 · LAS → RNO
departs 1:33 PM PT · arrives 2:58 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 46%
Mon 11/2 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RNO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.