Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 239
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 239 · AUS → STL
departs 1:38 PM CT · arrives 3:53 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 467 ft Visibility 3.66667 mi Precip 0.11 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.