Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 2404 · SFO → LAS
departs 1:44 PM PT · arrives 3:21 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±17 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.