Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2426 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Friday, October 30 Today

WN 2426 · LAS → SMF

took off 5:42 AM PT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 5:24 AM PT → 7:02 AM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ LAS is busy at that time

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from LAS are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2426 · LAS → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?