Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2436
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 2436 · SNA → LAS
departs 1:39 PM PT · arrives 2:53 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±8 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.13 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.