Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2494
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 2494 · LAX → OAK
departs 12:22 PM PT · arrives 1:47 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29 20%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 17%
Mon 11/2 34%
Tue 11/3 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.