Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2496
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 2496 · PHX → SNA
departs 1:19 PM MT · arrives 2:43 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±5 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
30%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
1pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.65 in
SNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.