Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2509
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 2509 · LAX → SJC
departs 1:15 PM PT · arrives 2:38 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 39%
Mon 11/2 34%
Tue 11/3 27%
Wed 11/4 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.06 in
SJC (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.