Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 2515 · LAX → SMF
departs 11:58 AM PT · arrives 1:31 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from LAX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.06 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.