WN 2523 · STL → LAS

departs 6:16 PM CT · arrives 7:54 PM PT

Your aircraft is N8578Q (B738), coming in as WN 133 from PHX: landed 7:12 PM CT.

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2523 · STL → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?