Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2553
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 2553 · LGB → AUS
departs 7:47 AM PT · arrives 12:49 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 9%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↓
7am departures from LGB are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
LGB (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.02 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.