Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2583
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 2583 · LGB → SMF
departs 1:16 PM PT · arrives 2:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 4%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGB
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
1pm departures from LGB are usually not late
Weather at each end
LGB (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.05 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.