WN 258 · SMF → SAN

took off 4:58 PM PT · expected to land 6:07 PM PT (scheduled 4:26 PM PT → 6:09 PM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

LIVE

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 258 · SMF → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?