Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2657
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 2657 · MCI → SAN
departs 10:14 AM CT · arrives 11:42 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
↓
10am departures from MCI are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.05 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.