Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 275
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 275 · AUS → BNA
departs 3:56 PM CT · arrives 6:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 34%
Tue 11/3 34%
Wed 11/4 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 467 ft forecast at AUS that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 467 ft Visibility 4.66667 mi Precip 0.14 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.