Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2808
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 2808 · MCO → SMF
departs 6:31 PM ET · arrives 8:59 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 35%
Mon 11/2 34%
Tue 11/3 24%
Wed 11/4 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,967 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.