Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2861
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 2861 · STL → BNA
departs 2:25 PM CT · arrives 3:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from STL are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.06 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.