WN 2893 · PHX → SJC

departs 2:36 PM MT · arrives 4:40 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

↓ Arrivals into SJC at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.87 in

SJC (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2893 · PHX → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?