Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3002
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3002 · MDW → TPA
departs 5:00 AM CT · arrives 8:47 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Wed 10/28 7%
Thu 10/29 3%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 7%
Mon 11/2 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
2%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
2%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
97%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from MDW are usually not late
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.