Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3009
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3009 · TUL → DAL
departs 12:12 PM CT · arrives 1:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29 11%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 16%
Tue 11/3 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Fridays in October are usually busier than average
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL
↓
12pm departures from TUL are usually not late
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,767 ft Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.