WN 3015 · AUS → LGB

departs 4:58 PM CT · arrives 6:11 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±0 pts +24 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGB?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
40%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at AUS that day

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

↓ LGB usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.20 in

LGB (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3015 · AUS → LGB

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGB?