Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3016
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 3016 · MEM → DEN
departs 2:46 PM CT · arrives 4:13 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 26%
Tue 11/3 39%
Wed 11/4 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.