Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3047
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3047 · PHX → MEM
departs 12:34 PM MT · arrives 5:39 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.65 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.