Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 307
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 307 · HOU → CUN
departs 1:56 PM CT · arrives 4:12 PM EST
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 12%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 21%
Tue 11/3 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at CUN more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CUN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at CUN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CUN?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↓
Arrivals into CUN at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CUN (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.