Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3091
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3091 · BNA → SMF
departs 12:42 PM CT · arrives 3:13 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.