Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3114
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3114 · MSY → HOU
departs 6:29 PM CT · arrives 7:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/29 31%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 35%
Mon 11/2 27%
Tue 11/3 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.