Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3151
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 3151 · SMF → SAN
departs 1:29 PM PT · arrives 3:12 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±6 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.