Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3154
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3154 · OAK → BUR
departs 11:01 AM PT · arrives 12:27 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29 10%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 10%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from OAK are often late
↑
Fridays in October are usually busier than average
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.