Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3174
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3174 · BUR → AUS
departs 8:13 AM PT · arrives 1:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
Fridays in October are usually busier than average
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.