Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3178
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3178 · OGG → OAK
departs 9:59 AM HT · arrives 5:47 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 9%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 15%
Tue 11/3 13%
Wed 11/4 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into OAK at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
9am departures from OGG are usually not late
↓
This flight has been late 5% of the time recently
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.02 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.