Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3196
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 3196 · MCI → BNA
departs 3:32 PM CT · arrives 5:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at MCI that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.20 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.