Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3198
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 3198 · IND → PHX
departs 3:48 PM ET · arrives 4:33 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.71 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.