WN 3200 · OAK → SAN

took off 8:15 PM PT · landed 9:23 PM PT (scheduled 6:54 PM PT → 8:32 PM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SAN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3200 · OAK → SAN

Odds over time

How late did it get to SAN?