Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3206
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 3206 · SNA → PHX
departs 12:32 PM PT · arrives 1:56 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±4 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
SNA is prone to delays
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.02 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.65 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.