Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3253
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3253 · OMA → MDW
departs 10:28 AM CT · arrives 12:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 8%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at OMA that day
↓
OMA usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
OMA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.39 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.