Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3256
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 3256 · OMA → PHX
departs 5:49 PM CT · arrives 6:38 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 16%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±5 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
OMA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
OMA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.29 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.65 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.