Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3259
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3259 · ONT → AUS
departs 11:55 AM PT · arrives 4:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 11%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT
↓
ONT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ONT (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.