Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3553
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3553 · OAK → ONT
departs 10:38 AM PT · arrives 12:12 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 7%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at ONT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to ONT?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Arrivals into ONT at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ONT (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.