Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3560
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3560 · AUS → RNO
departs 12:28 PM CT · arrives 1:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±5 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 467 ft Visibility 3.66667 mi Precip 0.07 in
RNO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.