Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3583
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3583 · LGB → RNO
departs 10:23 AM PT · arrives 11:55 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 10%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGB is prone to delays
↓
Arrivals into RNO at that hour are usually not late
↓
10am departures from LGB are usually not late
Weather at each end
LGB (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.09 in
RNO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.