Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3618
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 3618 · SDF → HOU
departs 3:27 PM ET · arrives 4:49 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.