Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3624
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3624 · SAN → BNA
departs 2:25 PM PT · arrives 8:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/29 37%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 38%
Tue 11/3 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.