Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3715
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3715 · SAT → HOU
departs 1:08 PM CT · arrives 2:16 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.12 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.