Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3790
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 3790 · SJC → AUS
departs 6:22 AM PT · arrives 11:56 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 11%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 4%
Sun 11/1 8%
Mon 11/2 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SJC is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from SJC are usually not late
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.