Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3804
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 3804 · SJC → DEN
departs 12:20 PM PT · arrives 3:53 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.